As we enter the final and most important fundraising months of 2025, several clients have asked how the U.S. economic climate, particularly the sharp rise in layoff announcements, may affect year-end charitable giving. October alone saw the highest monthly job-cut announcements in more than 20 years, and year-to-date layoffs now exceed 1 million across all industries.

The good news: For nonprofits whose donor base skews ages 55+, the outlook for year-end fundraising remains fundamentally strong.

Let’s talk through our strategic assessment based on current economic data, historical donor behavior, and Nexus Direct’s decades of experience fundraising during periods of economic uncertainty.

1. Layoff Uncertainties Are Primarily Affecting Working-Age Earners — Not Established Donors

The recent spike in layoffs has disproportionately affected sectors like tech, retail, service, and warehousing. These are industries filled with working-age Americans, many under 55.

By contrast, the donors who sustain most nonprofit revenue (especially those 60 and older) are far less exposed to job loss and income disruptions. Their financial stability is primarily derived from:

• • Social Security
  • Pensions
  • Investment income & RMDs
  • Home equity
  • Long-term savings

This group tends to maintain and, in many cases, increase charitable giving during unstable periods.

2. Retiree Donors Are Historically the Most Recession-Resilient Givers.

Data from the Great Recession, COVID, and the 2022–23 inflation spike all point to the same conclusion:

Donors over age 60 are the backbone of charitable giving in uncertain economies.

Their motivations are grounded in:

• • Habitual generosity
  • A sense of responsibility and continuity
  • Desire to “be the steady hand” in unstable times
  • Deeper emotional connection to the causes they support
  • We expect this pattern to continue through the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026.

3. Younger Donors and Monthly Givers May Contract — Plan Accordingly.

Segments most sensitive to layoffs (ages 25–54) may reduce:

• • One-time gifts
  • Monthly commitments
  • Event participation
  • Impulse-response digital giving

This reinforces the need for strong 60+ years segmentation, renewals, and mid-level strategies for Q4 and early 2026.

4. Major Donors Become Even More Influential During Uncertain Periods.

Economic turbulence does not significantly depress giving among affluent donors ages 65+. In fact, major donors often step up when they perceive:

• • A rising need
  • Organizational stability
  • Responsible stewardship
  • A clear plan and measurable impact

We recommend proactively engaging your mid-level and major prospects now with personalized outreach and specific areas of need in which they can have an immediate impact.

5. Messaging Strategy: Reassure, Don’t Alarm.

In a softening labor market, donor psychology matters.

Effective message framing for seniors:

• • “Your commitment ensures stability in a year of uncertainty.”
  • “People are hurting, but your generosity gives hope.”
  • “Long-time supporters like you sustain our mission through every season.”
  • “Now more than ever, your impact matters.”

Tone should be:

• • Respectful
  • Transparent and authentic
  • Solution-focused
  • Stewardship-driven
  • Optimistic but candid

What to avoid:

• • Overly dire messaging (“We may not survive”)
  • Politicized economic references
  • Overuse of emergency framing without proof of need

Tactical Recommendations for Q4 2025–Q1 2026:

1. Double down on ages 60+ donor engagement:

• • Traditional direct mail
  • Personalized mid-level upgrades
  • High-touch cultivation for donors ages 70+
  • Segmented digital campaigns for retirees

2. Strengthen monthly-giving retention:

• • Clear save-the-sustainer scripts
  • Compassionate cancellation pathways
  • Ability to pause or reduce temporarily

3. Optimize acquisition to target older prospects:

• • Direct mail remains the best-performing channel
  • Augment with paid search (especially Google Ad Grants)
  • Landing pages optimized for users ages 55+
  • Retargeting warm, older audiences

4. Introduce or expand planned giving

Periods of uncertainty significantly increase will drafting, estate planning and IRA Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs). A simple insert, brochure, or landing page can generate strong, long-term pipeline value, while options like Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs) can provide a giving option for donors concerned about their liquidity.

The Bottom Line for Nonprofit Leaders:

While headline layoff numbers may seem alarming, the donor segments driving the majority of philanthropic revenue — especially donors ages 60 and older — remain financially stable, emotionally committed, and deeply motivated to continue helping during difficult times.

We expect year-end fundraising to remain strong for organizations that:

• • Prioritize senior donors
  • Communicate clearly and compassionately
  • Demonstrate fiscal responsibility
  • Articulate real impact
  • Maintain consistent outreach

Nexus Direct will continue monitoring the economy and donor behavior closely and will advise you of additional shifts that could influence giving patterns.

If you have specific questions about your audience, campaign calendar, or segmentation strategy, please send us a message through our contact form or via email at . Our team is ready to support you.

Together, we’ll ensure that your mission remains strong regardless of the economic climate.

— The Nexus Direct Team

Sources:

October Challenger Report: 153,074 Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AI

Layoff announcements surged last month: The worst October in 22 years